Note from the President: Operation Unified Protector

AFA members, this week I was interviewed on NPR about Operation Unified Protector (OUP) [Libya].  Here were my main points : Airpower played a significant role in any success the rebels may have had  Was I surprised?  Ans. No.  In modern warfare, no Army has ever won without control of the skies The rebels would never have been able to advance into Tripoli without Airpower The war is not over … despite what the press is reporting. NATO deserves credit for the operation (and remember, the US is part of NATO … ) Things that went well:  political resolve, sustained operation, small loss of life Things that could have been done better:  sortie rate (150 per day) was too low to have a more devastating effect; costly effort by using TLAMs in the opening days I emphasized that it was a war … despite the Administration saying it was not; it would have been better if the Administration had gone to Congress to seek the people’s support; that the US was indeed flying strike sorties; that all indications are that our ISR assets were critical to strike successes When asked what would have been the result if the US were in the lead – a much more intense air battle and a very shortened war with many more sorties per day.  How much shorter?  I don’t know.  I would need to get briefed on the details … [See comment below] Were there (allied/US) people on the ground?  Yes, British, French, and probably Dutch … and perhaps a 3 letter US agency What do you think about the allies running short of munitions?  It should have been a wake-up call for them.  They need to spend more on defense. Things I wish I had mentioned: The potential for WMD use  … or WMD/MANPADs (Man-portable air defenses of the stinger-type) proliferation to Al Qaeda.  Libya has significant quantities of Sarin nerve agent The $900M cost for the operation was about the same as 3 days in Afghanistan.  This shows that projecting vulnerability is costly. Airpower has the potential to keep us out of long and bloody occupations. The real challenge begins now. Khadaffy, a Bedouin, may be able to last for months. Rebuilding Libya, with our and Europe’s present economic conditions, will be challenging. The question of the length of a US-led operation caused me to pause … and then to do some analysis. The only comparable air operation in recent times was Operation Allied Force during (OAF) the Kosovo War.  A comparison of the two operations:  # of Aircraft in the operation:  OUP – 250; OAF – 1200 # of sorties per day:  OUP – 150; OAF – 80 Length of the operation:  OUP – almost 6 months and continuing; OAF – 78 days This makes a very important point:  Mass and numbers matter in an Air Campaign.  The more aircraft in an operation, the more likely it is to finish quickly … and the less loss of life.  Most air campaigns conduct attacks against 15,000+ aim points.  In OAF, 23,000 bombs and missiles were launched. So, as the Pentagon looks to cut its budget, it should remember our experience with the past.  A former boss of mine liked to quote George Santayana:  “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” For your consideration. Mike Michael M. Dunn President/CEO Air Force Association