AFA members, I’d ask that you take the time to really digest this
note … as it presents perhaps the most important national security issue for
our future survival. I’ll warn you in advance that to digest this note
and its links will take some time.
In May, a group call the Global Zero US Nuclear Policy Commission
came out with a report. You can see by the title where the end-game of
the report is heading. Global Zero advocates for the elimination of all
nuclear weapons. The Commission was chaired by Gen (Ret) James
Cartwright, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Its
members included Ambassador Richard Burt, Senator Chuck Hagel, Ambassador
Thomas Pickering, and Gen (Ret) Jack Sheehan.
In the report, the Commission advocates a reduction of our nuclear
weapons to a total of 900 – to include both tactical and strategic
weapons. 450 of these would be deployed and 450 held in reserve.
They further argue we – as a part of our negotiations with Russia – eliminate
our ICBM force, reduce our nuclear submarines to a total of 10, and keep them
24-72 hours away from their launch windows. They state that “9-11 exposed
the lack of efficacy – indeed, the irrelevance – of nuclear forces in dealing
with 21st century threats.”
Before you (out-of-hand) dismiss this report, you should read it …
and think about it. You can find the report at: http://us-cdn.creamermedia.co.za/assets/articles/attachments/39599_gz_us_nuclear_policy_commission_report.pdf
Secondly, there have been a few articles criticizing the
commission report. The best one, in my view, is by Keith Payne. Mr.
Payne is the head of the Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies
at Missouri State University and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of
Defense. In his piece, he disagrees with the Commission report … and
states that Chief of Staff of the Air Force, Gen Norton A. Schwartz, does
also.
A quote from the critique to interest you:
“For
example, while the report calls for a realistic understanding of the post-Cold
War security situation, it begins with, “Security is mainly a state of mind,
not a physical condition.” Why this fatuous statement? Because if
security is just a state of mind, old-fashioned security concerns can be
banished easily by new thinking. But security is not mainly a state of
mind. It often is predominantly a physical condition. Nations
usually feel insecure because they are under threat or attack. Just ask
the survivors of invasion, various genocidal campaigns and aerial bombardment
or the folks in Syria who must dodge government attacks to survive. Real
threats often underlie fears, and they require real solutions. Those who
chalk this all up to “mainly a state of mind” and resist real solutions to real
security problems often later are called “victims.””
You can find the article here: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/may/29/zero-nuclear-sense/
Next, at an AFA, NDIA, and ROA sponsored breakfast, Gen (Ret)
Larry Welch expressed his views on the Commission’s report. General
Welch, as many of you will recall, was – before he was Chief of Staff of the
Air Force – the Commander of the Strategic Air Command. He, too, is
critical of the Global Zero Commission report. A quote from his talk to
interest you:
“The
first obstacle is in our heads —or at least the heads of some people. It is
this vision that somehow, if we dismantle our strategic nuclear deterrent,
other nations would follow our lead and the world would then be a safer place.
In this vein, a May 2012 report by the Global Zero calls for (1) eliminating
nearly 80% of our current nuclear force; (2) “de-alerting” the remaining
deployed U.S. nuclear deterrent, and (3) entirely eliminating the ICBM leg of
the triad, the most stabilizing part of the current nuclear deterrent triad.
The
only basis for the idea that drastically reducing the number of nukes we have
would magically make us safer and help eliminate other nuclear dangers is hope.
But hope is not a plan, and hope is not a basis for security. Hope does not
defend us. I would ask who would be willing to rely on hope for the safety and
security of their family? No one would do that. The answer is nobody. Then why
would anyone then rely on hope for the safety and security of this country and
of more than 30 countries that depend on our extended deterrent?”
A second very thoughtful quote from Gen Welch:
“Regarding
the role of nuclear weapons in the 21st century, we have heard comments to the
effect that these are old Cold War weapons that have not been used, will never
be used, and therefore serve no purpose. The primary role of U.S. nuclear
weapons for well over half a century has been to prevent their use. To that
end, we have used them every second of every day since the first deterrent
systems were deployed. They have worked perfectly. The nuclear deterrent is the
only weapons system I know of that has worked perfectly without fail, exactly as
intended, for their entire life span. And because they have been so successful,
then there may be some who have forgotten why we need them.”
You can find his remarks at: http://www.afa.org/EdOp/2012/Dealing_with_nuclear_issues.asp
As many of you know, I seldom express my personal views in these
notes. This issue is an exception – because of its criticality to the
security of the United States. You can find my views in a previous note: http://www.afa.org/PresidentsCorner/Notes/2012/Notes_4-19-12.pdf
Finally, I’d ask that – after you have read all the material in
this Perspective, you give me your feedback.
For your consideration.
Mike
Michael M. Dunn
President/CEO
Air Force Association
“The only thing more expensive than a first-rate
Air Force is … a second-rate Air Force.” -- Senate staff memberMichael M. Dunn
President/CEO
Air Force Association
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