SECDEF speeches, Aircraft Proc, Hero

AFA members, Congressional Staff members, Civic leaders, DOCA members, recently, Sec Gates gave two important speeches – one at West Point and the other at the Air Force Academy. You can find the speeches at:
USAFA: http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1543

USMA: http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1539

There are two small factual errors in the USAFA speech. See if you can find them. (Hint: One is implied … and both are on page two).

Secondly, we have laid out part of the 2012 budget for you as it pertains to aircraft procurement. You can find a simple brief at: http://www.afa.org/members/CommTools/slidedeck/budget/DOD_2012_AircraftProcurement.pdf

Overall, the nation is supporting the Army’s, Navy’s, and Marine’s air arms … as well as the nation’s Air Force.

A few observations from the briefing:

The Department of the Navy aircraft procurement budget is larger than the Department of the Air Force’s

The Navy and Marines – with a total of about 70% of the number of systems as the Air Force – is buying almost twice as many aircraft (227 vs 114). [Recall that the Chief of Staff, General Schwartz, has said the AF needs to buy about 200 aircraft per year in order to make modest reductions in average aircraft age of the fleet.]

The Army – with about 60% of the number of systems as the Air Force – is buying more than twice as many aircraft (236 vs 114).

If the aircraft buy rate holds steady over time [which it never does], the Navy is on a replacement rate of about 17.5 years – which is respectable.

The Army replacement rate is about 15 years, and it, too is respectable.

The Air Force replacement rate is a little over 49 years -- which means that, except for retiring old systems, the average age will not get younger this fiscal year.

Finally, this note’s Portrait in Courage is about Staff Sergeant Robert Gutierrez. SSgt Gutierrez is Special Tactics Combat Controller with a U.S. Army Special Forces Team. I think you’ll find -- when you read the piece – you will have a sense of pride in the great service of all those who serve our nation.
For you consideration.
Mike

Michael M. Dunn
President/CEO
Air Force Association

Air Force Memorial to Host Engraving Ceremony for CMSgt Etchberger

Next week AFA's Air Force Memorial will be hosting an engraving ceremony for Medal of Honor Recipient Chief Master Sergeant Richard L. Etchberger!

On Friday, March 11, 2011, an unveiling ceremony recognizing Etchberger’s name on the Valor, Courage and Sacrifice Wall at the AF Memorial will commence at 10:30 a.m.
[For directions, go here >>>]

Etchberger received the Medal of Honor, the U.S. military's highest decoration, posthumously for his heroic actions in combat on March 11, 1968, during the Vietnam War.

About Etchberger:
As a radar technician, he served at the summit of one of the tallest mountains in Laos, where he and a small team manned a radar station guiding American pilots in the air campaign against North Vietnam.

On March 11, 1968, the site came under attack from North Vietnamese soldiers. Chief Etchberger continued to direct air strikes and call for air rescue on his emergency radio, thus enabling the air evacuation force to locate their position. Etchberger tended to the wounded and fought off the advancing North Vietnamese troops until a rescue helicopter arrived.

Etchberger loaded his wounded men, one by one, each time exposing himself to enemy fire. But as the helicopter headed toward an air base in Thailand, an enemy soldier below fired into the underside of the aircraft, fatally wounding Etchberger. Of those 19 men on the mountain that night, only seven made it out alive. Three of them owed their lives to the actions of Chief Etchberger.

The Medal of Honor was presented to Etchberger's sons by President Obama at a White House ceremony on September 21, 2010.

Back in November 2010, AFA's Air Force Magazine, did an amazing feature on Etchberger. Check it out here: "Etchberger, Medal of Honor"

Please join us for this special ceremony in honor of CMSgt Richard L. Etchberger, for serving above and beyond the call of duty.

*Important Note: Military should be in their uniform of the day while civilians are requested to wear business attire.

Budget, Book, Space Strategy, Hero

AFA Members, Congressional staff members, Civic leaders, DOCA members, debate of the US budget and the rising deficit dominates the news here in Washington DC. As many of you may know, I have been worried about the high levels of deficit spending for many years. See the following notes:

http://www.afa.org/PresidentsCorner/Notes/Notes_1-9-09.pdf

http://www.afa.org/PresidentsCorner/Notes/Notes_1-16-09.pdf

http://www.afa.org/PresidentsCorner/Notes/Notes_3-12-09.pdf

http://www.afa.org/PresidentsCorner/Notes/Notes_10-20-09.pdf

http://www.afa.org/PresidentsCorner/Notes/Notes_11-12-10.pdf

Last week the Congressional budget office came out with a short report which, I think, explains simply its estimates on future deficits. The report points out that the increases in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid have been, in the past, paid for by significant cuts in Defense spending. The difference in where we are now is that we can’t decrease Defense spending enough to cover projected increases. For a summary of the report see the section below my name.

Secondly, last week I read a great book entitled: The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth, James Ledbedder, and Daniel Roth. It describes what occurred in the depression years from the diary of someone who was interested in making observations. What was interesting about the book was:

1.How really bad the depression was. Not only did many people lose everything they had, but unemployment was so high and bank failures so frequent that massive portions of the population were on public assistance. Tax revenues shrank and those who could pay … say property taxes, razed rental buildings to take the land back to unimproved status to lower tax rates.


2.There were many similarities to the economic situation we face today. Some of the solutions undertaken by the Roosevelt Administration – which did not work – have been tried today. Both the Obama and Roosevelt Administrations tried to “spend their way out of” the recession/depression … and it did not work in the 1930s. The book is an easy read … and a bit repetitive. And a lot of it talks about categories of investments and how they were doing. But it gives one insights to the depression that I have not seen elsewhere. Plus it is a great addition to the understanding of perhaps our most important national security issue – our economy.

Thirdly, about 6 weeks ago, the Administration released its National Space Strategy. A link to the unclassified summary can be found at: http://www.defense.gov/home/features/2011/0111_nsss/docs/NationalSecuritySpaceStrategyUnclassifiedSummary_Jan2011.pdf I was struck by the simple observation that space is … as opposed to Tom Friedman’s Hot, Flat, and Crowded … cold, infinite, crowded … and essential. The number of countries which operate satellites in space is now approaching 60. Plus there are over 22,000 man-made objects in space. Keeping track of them … and avoiding them is a tough challenge faced by both USSTRATCOM and AFSPACECOM. Take a look at this summary and let me know what you think about it.

Finally, this week’s Portrait in Courage highlights the heroism of Staff Sergeant Christopher Ferrell. SSgt Ferrell is an Explosive Ordnance Disposal Team Leader. You can read about his exploits at: http://www.afa.org/Portraits/2010/Portrait_Ferrell.asp

For you consideration.

Mike

Michael M. Dunn
President/CEO
Air Force Association

________________________________________

FEDERAL BUDGET
The Outlook for the Economy and the Budget
CBO, February 24, 2011

Although CBO expects that production and employment will expand this year and in coming years, a return to normal economic conditions will take years. Payroll employment, which declined by nearly 9 million between the end of 2007 and early 2010, has recovered by just a shade over 1 million since then. Only by 2016, in our forecast, does the unemployment rate reach 5.3 percent, close to our estimate of the natural rate.

If current laws remain unchanged, as we assume for CBO’s baseline projections, the economic recovery and scheduled expiration of major tax provisions would cause budget deficits to drop markedly over the next few years as a share of output. Still, CBO projects that deficits would average 3.6 percent of GDP from 2012 through 2021, totaling nearly $7 trillion over that decade. As a result, the debt held by the public would keep rising, reaching 77 percent of GDP in 2021.

Suppose instead that three major aspects of current policy were continued during the coming decade: 1) the higher 2011 exemption amount for the alternative minimum tax (AMT) was extended and, along with the AMT tax brackets, was indexed for inflation; 2) the other major provisions in the recently enacted tax legislation that affected individual income taxes and estate and gift taxes were extended, rather than allowed to expire in January 2013; and 3) Medicare’s payment rates for physicians’ services were held constant, rather than dropping sharply as scheduled under current law. If those policies were extended permanently, deficits over the coming decade would average about 6 percent of GDP and would cumulate to nearly $12 trillion. Debt held by the public in 2021 would rise to almost 100 percent of GDP, the highest level since 1946.

Assuming the continuation of those policies, balancing the budget in 2021 would require an additional cut in spending of about one-quarter, an increase in tax revenue of about one-third, or some combination of those approaches. On the spending side, a cut of that size would be a little more than total projected spending on Social Security; almost as much as combined spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and other health programs; and much more than spending on defense. Such a cut would also be a bit larger than all other federal spending—including spending related to transportation, education grants, federal justice, unemployment assistance, and retirement benefits, for example—apart from net interest and the programs listed above. On the revenue side, an increase of that size would be more than a tripling of revenue from the corporate income tax or a substantial increase in individual income tax revenue.

Projected Federal Revenue and Spending in 2021 with the Continuation of Certain Policies

During the past few decades, the significant increase in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending has been accommodated in the federal budget by a marked decline in defense spending relative to GDP. Between 1970 and 2007, outlays for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security as a share of GDP increased by a little more than 4 percentage points; over that same period, outlays for defense as a share of GDP decreased by a little more than 4 percentage points.Looking ahead, outlays for Social Security and federal health programs will continue to expand more rapidly than GDP as the baby boomers retire and health spending per person increases—climbing nearly another 4 percentage points in CBO’s projections by 2021. With defense spending running between 4 percent and 5 percent of GDP in the past few years, significantly reducing deficits will require changes to programs or tax payments that people will feel much more directly than they felt those past changes in defense spending.

Budgetary changes of the magnitude that will ultimately be required could be disruptive. Therefore, Congress may wish to implement them gradually so as to avoid a sudden negative impact on the economy, particularly as it recovers from the severe recession, and so as to give families, businesses, and state and local governments time to plan and adjust. Allowing for such gradual implementation would mean that remedying the nation’s fiscal imbalance would take longer and therefore that major policy changes would need to be enacted soon to limit the further increase in federal debt.

Libya, Radio piece, Book Recommendation

AFA Members, Congressional staff members, Civic leaders, DOCA members,

In the past 24 hours, I’ve talked with several reporters on the feasibility of creating a No Fly Zone over Libya. I don’t know if they will use any of my words ... but ... The note below was what I sent a friend who asked a specific question: Could the Libyan Air Defense system threaten the F-22 if it were used to set up a NFZ? I think it may shed light on the discussion of this military option.

Secondly, yesterday I did a radio piece on the tanker competition. It is not to do as easy as it might sound … I did say one misstated word. See if you can find it. The link is: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?sid=2290164&nid=150&_hw=dunn

Finally, I want to point you to a new book. It is entitled: Global Air Power and is edited by John Andreas Olsen. [You might remember the editor in a few of his previous books [a link to Amazon provides a useful summary: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_0_18?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=john+andreas+olsen&sprefix=john+andreas+olsen]. His A History of Air Warfare is on both CSAF’s and my reading lists. This book is a compendium of essays by noted Airpower authors from all over the world. The book is long (400+ pages), but the 10 essays can be considered mini-books in their own right. Gen (Ret) Charles A. Horner writes this about the book:

"Military air power is less than one hundred years old, yet today no land or sea force can prevail in battle when opposed by a capable, well-led air force. Global Air Power traces how air forces in a range of countries found their rightful roles in the context of national priorities and achieved preeminence despite entrenched beliefs in the primacy of land and sea forces. This book should be required reading for all military leaders, present and future."

For you consideration.

Mike

Michael M. Dunn
President/CEO
Air Force Association


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Name deleted], the air defense system could not threaten the F-22. The Libyans have older systems. The network is integrated for a common radar picture. However, their aircraft are older -- mostly Mig 21s and Mig 23s with some light attack/trainers and some ground attack aircraft. The Surface to Air missiles are also older SA-2s, SA-3s (Viet Nam era) and about 50 SA-6s. The latter are lethal to almost all aircraft except for the F-22. They would have to be dealt with in any regard. But it is not clear what kind of maintenance they have undergone ... nor how well the Libyans are trained on the system.

The central issue, in my mind, with a no-fly zone (NFZ) is a policy one. What do you want to do? It is too facile to say: Stop aircraft from killing people and destroying things ... as it begs the question of: “Soooooo, are you OK with ground forces killing people and destroying things?” If the latter is answered in the negative, then the air piece is only one part of a larger answer. [I worry this option is being considered just to be seen as “Doing Something.”]

A second, but lesser important question is: How long do you want to do this. If the answer is: We don't know ... but plan for a month or so. Then we'll need a couple hundred aircraft for 24/7 ops ... and either 3-4 carriers plus land-based support or bases in nearby nations or both. Italy is the best choice ... and to get its OK, we'll need either a NATO sign off, a UN Security Council Resolution, or just plain leaning on a good friend with a weak government. Other basing options are a bit unsavory. Egypt probably won't help ... neither will Tunisia. Algeria has its own terrorist problems. Israel won't want to be seen in an active role. Other African choices are pretty far away with little infrastructure.

A subset of the first issue -- more in the tactical realm -- is you would want to take out some of the air defenses no matter what systems you use ... and that means killing Libyan troops ... with all the unintended consequences of such actions. Secondly, what do you do about helicopters? They are hard to kill ... especially if they know you are coming. What if they just set down on the top of a building? You can't get them with an air-to-air missile; you'd need bombs [or as some of our members have pointed out – bullets] ... and that may mean civilian casualties ... especially if you don't hit that which you are aiming. Also, you don't generally configure fighters for both air-to-air missions and air-to-ground ones at the same time. Thus the need for more aircraft. The F-22 does carry both types of weapons internally and can do the job. I cannot address the policy question of whether Sec Gates would entertain a request from EUCOM to deploy the F-22. Some believe he would be reluctant to approve the aircraft’s deployment.

Finally, the Navy is not configured for round the clock operations, except in a short-term surge mode and has to keep a bit of its airpower to defend the fleet. This means less for NFZ ops. The good news is that you would not have to establish a NFZ over the entire country -- probably just the major cities and perhaps a few key air bases.

Bottom line: creating a NFZ over the country is “do-able” – but not simple … and I would want to get the policy pieces answered before we embarked on this option.

I know you didn't ask all this ... but ...

Best

AFA President and CEO Mike Dunn on Federal News Radio

Yesterday afternoon, AFA's very own Mike Dunn was on FederalNewsRadio, as part of Federal News Radio's daily DoD Report.

Here's the link to the tanker selection: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?sid=2290164&nid=150&_hw=dunn

Commander of Pacific Air Forces to Speak at Air Force Breakfast Series

The next session of AFA's Air Force Breakfast Series will have General Gary L. North, Commander of Pacific Air Forces (PACAF), as the guest speaker! We'll be back at the Sheraton Crystal City Hotel for this session, to be held on Thursday, March 10, 2011, from 7:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.

The Air Force Breakfast Program is a monthly series that provides a venue for senior Air Force and Department of Defense leaders to communicate directly with the public and the press.

PACAF is responsible for Air Force activities spread over half the globe in a command that supports 45,000 Air Force people serving principally in Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, Korea and Japan. In addition to being Commander of PACAF, Gen. North is Air Component Commander for U.S. Pacific Command and Executive Director for Pacific Air Combat Operations Staff at Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii.

Commissioned in 1976, Gen. North has served two tours on the Joint Staff, serving as an executive officer to the Director of the Joint Staff, and as Director of Politico-Military Affairs for Asia-Pacific, where he was responsible for regional planning and policy for the Asia-Pacific, South Asia and Central Asia regions. He has also served on the Air Force Staff as the Chief of Joint Requirements Division and Deputy Director of Joint Matters, and as the Director for Operations of U.S. Pacific Command at Camp H.M. Smith, Hawaii.

He is also a command pilot with more than 4,600 flying hours, primarily in the F-4, F-15 and F-16. He flew 83 combat missions in Operations Desert Storm, Southern Watch, Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom.

You can register online at http://afamarchbreakfast.eventbrite.com/. For additional information, go here: http://www.afa.org/CorpMembers/AFA_AF_BreakfastProgram.asp

The Sheraton Crystal City Hotel is located at 1800 Jefferson Davis Highway, Arlington VA, 22202.

Women's History Month

March is Women’s History Month, a month set aside to highlight contributions of women to events in our history. The theme for March 2011 is, “Our History Is Our Strength.” Countless extraordinary individuals help represent a proud heritage for women in the armed forces. We, at AFA, salute the many outstanding figures, as well as organizations, who have dedicated themselves to this country. We honor their service, we salute their dedication and we appreciate their sacrifices and perseverance.